Brewers-Blue Jays

Framber Valdez was one of Toronto's young rotation cornerstones and extremely highly regarded.

Taking on Justus Sheffield's rehab project at basically the same contract value as Valdez is a huge risk.

Nevertheless, preliminary research indicates that Sheffield's problems are not his velocity or movement (velocity actually slightly increased). All his pitching statcast fundamentals are nearly identical from 2020 to 2021 (swing and miss, chase rate, etc.). Yet his barrel rate dropped from being in the top 10% to the bottom 10%. He's getting absolutely crushed with an XBA of .302 and XWOBA of .396 - bottom 1% of the league. Literally can't get any worse. It's possible that he's lost command and grooving his main pitch, the sinker fastball. It's also possible his pitch selection is predictable, so the league figured him out.

If some time in Tacoma and some rework bring Sheffield back - even to his original projection of a 3rd or 4th starter, this trade slams in the long-term. On the other hand, even if Sheffield is a lost cause, the draft capital makes up for it.

Hats off to Milwaukee for being creative and coming in with a STRONG first offer. Good Luck, ROS.

Approved....